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Perspektief | Perspective Week 47 - 2018

23 Nov 2018

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INFORMATION

Luan van der Walt, Economist

 

China’s National Bureau of Statistics has announced revised market information that caused major changes in the latest world supply and demand estimates (WASDE).

Maize:

  • World ending stocks for the 2018/19 season are estimated on 307 million tons of which 207 million tons is in China.
  • China therefore has 67% of the total world ending stocks.
  • Ending stocks in the rest of the world is approximately 100 million tons.
  • Stocks to usage ratio = ±27% (Including China’s consumption & stocks)
  • Stocks to usage ratio = ±12% (Excluding China’s consumption & stocks)

Wheat:

  • World ending stocks for the 2018/19 season are estimated on 267 million tons of which 143 million tons is in China.
  • China therefore has 54% of the total world ending stocks.
  • Ending stocks in the rest of the world is approximately 124 million tons.
  • Stocks to usage ratio = ±36% (Including China’s consumption & stocks)
  • Stocks to usage ratio = ±20% (Excluding China’s consumption & stocks)

Soybeans:

  • World ending stocks for the 2018/19 season are estimated on 112 million tons of which 19.8 million tons is in China.
  • China therefore has 18% of the total world ending stocks.
  • Ending stocks in the rest of the world is approximately 92 million tons.
  • Stocks to usage ratio = ±32% (Including China’s consumption & stocks)
  • Stocks to usage ratio = ±38% (Excluding China’s consumption & stocks)

Although a large part of the world’s stocks, especially maize and wheat, is in China, the rest of the world’s stocks to usage (StU) is still fairly in line with the needs. The StU of maize is the lowest and therefore the international maize market are likely to be more sensitive towards production conditions in the largest producing countries. The soybean stocks in the rest of the world is very high when China’s consumption is excluded.

 

 


2019 Regional Meetings

 

A schedule of the Grain SA Regional Meetings that will take place in January and February 2019 is now available online. Keep an eye on the webpage for any updated information to the calendar.

View the important 2019 dates below:

 

 

 

 

 


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