• Login
  • Search Icon

Perspektief | Perspective Week 21 - 2018

25 May 2018




A new record attendance figure achieved during NAMPO 2018 and the feedback from the exhibitors that they mainly did good business testify to the optimism of the agricultural sector despite all the uncertainties facing South African producers.
This is the view of Jannie de Villiers, CEO of Grain SA, after the organisation’s 52nd NAMPO Harvest Day, which was presented successfully during the past week. According to ticket sales, 82 817 visitors streamed through the gates to visit the 746 exhibitors and to enjoy the family atmosphere and farm hospitality that are so unique to the Harvest Day. The private airstrip at NAMPO Park handled 361 aeroplanes and helicopters, ferrying a variety of visitors there, with ease.

"The growing interest in the NAMPO Harvest Day is encouraging, and it proves that agriculture is still alive and well. To each exhibitor, visitor and staff member: thank you that you came to enjoy the event with us and helped to write the NAMPO story with us. A personal highlight of each NAMPO is meeting various people, talking and building relationships. Those relationships strengthen the hope on which agriculture is built".

Read the full NAMPO press release here




Corné Louw, Senior Economist

According to the latest information from the Central Energy Fund, diesel prices are expected to increase by 87 cents per liter and fuel prices by 83 cents per liter on 6 June 2018.





Agri SA, in collaboration with the South African Institute of Tax Professionals (SAIT) is running a survey to determine whether farmers are experiencing delays in receiving diesel refunds from SARS. The survey will help Agri SA to identify any specific regional problems experienced by farmers. We urge members to complete the survey in order to ensure they receive the necessary inputs.

The survey can be completed online: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/dieselrefund   

Please complete the survey by 31 May 2018.




Luan van der Walt, Economist

According to the latest information announced by Statistics SA earlier this week, consumer price inflation for April was slightly higher than March 2018. The general expectation in the market was that it would be higher mainly due to the higher VAT rate that came into effect since April 2018. Fuel prices have also increased sharply, which has an impact on the local inflation rate. The current inflation rate of 4.5% year on year for April is still well in line with the target of the South African Reserve Bank, which is set at between 3% and 6%. However, it is expected that inflation may remain relatively stable close to current levels, in the next few months, and that there is a likelihood that inflation may show a slightly higher trend, rather than downward trend. However, there are a number of uncertain factors that will still have a significant impact on the inflation rate over the next few months. Currently, the volatility of the exchange rate as well as the rising trend of the Brent crude oil price are surely the two biggest factors that should play a significant role in the movement of the inflation rate over the said period.

Food inflation has slowed sharply in recent months, and overall food inflation was in April 2018 below 5% year on year, for the 5th consecutive month,. Grain and grain-based products play a key role in the overall food basket that is taken into account in calculating the monthly CPI. It is clear from the latest monthly inflation figures that prices of grain and cereal products such as maize flour, as well as wheat products (white and brown bread 700g) are declining. During April 2018 the price of a 700g white bread was about 3.26% lower compared to the same month last year while the price of brown bread was 5.98% lower than in April 2017. The price of maize flour was also significantly lower compared to a year ago and on average between 18% and 30% lower in April, compared to 2017, depending on the type of maize flour and its packaging. Graphs 1 and 2 below indicate the year-on-year change in the price of maize flour and bread respectively. It is clear from Graph 1 that the maize meal price of both super and special maize flour has begun to slow down since January 2017 and since August 2017 prices began to decline year on year. Figure 2 indicate the year-on-year change in prices of both white and brown bread over the past two years. It is clear that the year on year price of both white and brown bread began to decline for the first time in two years since August 2017.


Graph 1: Percentage year on year changes in the price of super and special maize meal prices                                                         Source: Stats SA


Graph 2:  Percentage change of year on year prices of 700g white and brown bread                                                                             Source: Stats SA





Petru Fourie, Research Coordinator and Agricultural Economist

The agricultural production conditions indicate producers are progressing well with oilseed harvesting; sunflower harvesting is already well advanced, while soybeans may be completed by the end of the week. Maize should only be fully harvested June/July. Frost patches occurred in lower-lying environments and appears to have caused only minor damage, although the impact and extent of this will only be determined by producers during harvesting.

Varying conditions in the Western Cape with fairly good conditions in the Swartland-area while the SSK-area is very dry. Generally, producers have finished planting. However, there are still areas where rain is awaited before planting will be completed but worry prevails about the optimal planting date nearing its end.

Click the images below for full screen view





Randy Dowdy is the current world record holder on soybeans with 11,47 t/ha yield, and was the world record holder on maize in 2014 with a yield of 34 t/ha.