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Perspektief | Perspective Week 15 - 2019

11 Apr 2019

 

 

 


AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CONDITIONS 
Petru Fourie, Agricultural Economist& Research Coordinator

Recent widespread rainfall that has occurred over the largest grain producing areas is of great value to the summer grain crops, which are in an important stage of the growth cycle. According to experts, recent rains have reduced the chances of very low temperatures and the prevalence of frost, and frost is expected to occur only in late April in central areas. However, the prevailing cooler and cloudy conditions are currently slowing down crop growth. Producers in the eastern part of the country want to start harvesting soybeans but the wet conditions is hindering the harvesting process. 

Click the image below for full screen view.

 


INPUT PRICE TRENDS FOR WINTER GRAINS 
Corné Louw & Ikageng Maluleke, Economists

Fuel prices for May 2019
According to the latest information from the Central Energy Fund, diesel prices may decrease with 4 cents per litre on 1 May, while the petrol price may increase by 56 cents per litre. The wholesale price of diesel in Gauteng currently cost R14.95 per litre, which is 17.23% higher compared to the same time last year.

 

Fertiliser price trends
International versus local fertiliser price trends:

Since more than 80% of South Africa’s fertiliser needs has to be imported, international price trends can be used to predict domestic price movements. Internationally, prices have been used in certain ports while domestically average prices of various fertiliser companies are used. The intent is to capture comparative year-on-year trends rather than on the physical price.

Table 1 indicate global price trends in dollar terms, while Table 2 shows the same prices in rand value. In international markets, prices of ammonia, urea and DAP have decreased in dollar terms over the year-period, whilst the price of potassium chloride increased. The rand has, over the same period, weakened by 13.1%, which should be unfavourable for imported fertilisers. Table 2 indicate a clear increased value in rand in terms of international fertiliser prices due to the weaker exchange.

Table 1: International fertiliser prices in dollar value

 

March 2018

March 2019

% change

Fertiliser

Dollar/ton

Dollar/ton

%

Ammonia (Middle-East)

287

256

-10.8

Urea (46) (Eastern Europe)

234

224

-4.3

DAP (US Golf)

412

385

-6.6

KCL (CIS)

250

280

+12.0

Rand/Dollar exchange

11,83

13,38

13,1

 

Table 2: International fertiliser prices in rand value

 

March 2018

March 2019

% change

Fertiliser

Rand/ton

Rand/ton

%

Ammonia (Middle-East)

3 395

3 425

+0,9

Urea (46) (Eastern Europe)

2768

2997

+8

DAP (US Golf)

4874

5151

+6

KCL (CIS)

2958

3746

+27

 

Table 3 indicate how local fertiliser price trends moved over a year-period. The table indicate that with the exception of KAN, local prices increased with more than 10% over the year-period.

Table 3: Domestic fertiliser prices

 

April 2018

April 2019

% change

Fertiliser

Rand/ton

Rand/ton

%

KAN (28)

4808

4803

-0,1

Urea (46)

5631

6205

+10,2

MAP

8394

9313

+10,9

KCL

6307

7263

+15,2

 

INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURE CHEMICAL PRICE TRENDS
Essentially 100% of the active ingredients needed to manufacture agricultural chemicals are imported. International trends and the exchange rate will therefore play a decisive role in domestic pricing.

Tables 1 to 4 indicate trends in international agricultural chemicals (active ingredients) prices in a Chinese port. Tables 2 and 4 indicate international prices in rand value. The rand has weakened by 13,1% from March 2018 to March 2018. 

As far as herbicides are concerned, except for Trifluralin, all active ingredients show year-on-year increased in rand value.

Table 1: Herbicide prices: International in dollar value

International herbicide prices - Year-on-year change ($/t)

 

 

Mar 18

Mar 19

% change

USD/t

USD/t

 %

Glyphosate (95%)

4 206

4 886

+16.2%

Acetochlor (92%)

2 588

3 983

+53.9%

Atrazine (97%)

2 657

3 686

+38.7%

Metolachlor (97%)

3 373

4 415

+30.9%

Trifluralin (95%)

4 516

4 585

+1.5%

R/$

13.56

12.18

-10.2%

 

Table 2: Herbicide prices: International in rand value

International herbicide prices - Year-on-year change (R/t)

 

Mar 18

Mar 19

% change

R/t

R/t

 %

Glyphosate (95%)

51 334

55 073

+7,3

Acetochlor (92%)

47 402

46 408

-2,1

Atrazine (97%)

44 677

46 462

+4,0

Metolachlor (97%)

53 517

49 104

-8,2

Trifluralin (95%)

56 488

70 189

+24,3

 

When reviewing insecticide prices, the most actives indicate sharp rising trend in dollar as well as in rand values. According to Chinese market reports, the state implements very strict pollution legislation, with many plants closing as a result. This has greatly reduced the supply of insecticides and pushed prices upwards. Sharp rises are expected in the domestic market in March 2018. It is important to take note that many of the multi-national companies' products are not imported from China, and therefore would not show similar increases.

 

Table 3: Insecticide prices: International in dollar value

International insecticide prices - Year-on-year changes ($/t)

 

Jan 17

R/t

Jan 18

R/t

% change

Imidacloprid (95%)

17 621

32 162

+82.5%

Lambda-cyhalothrin (95%)

20 996

36 890

+75.7%

Carbofuran (99%)

9 333

13 193

+41.4%

Deltamethrin (98%)

56 491

105 097

+86.0%

Acetamiprid (95%)

18 840

32 595

+73.0%

Chlorpyrifos (95%)

4 348

7 154

+64.5%

Cypermethrin (94%)

9 655

18 002

+86.5%

R/$

13.56

12.18

-10.2%

 

Table 4: Insecticide prices: International in rand value

International insecticide prices - Year-on-year changes (R/t)

 

Jan 17

R/t

Jan 18

R/t

% change

Imidacloprid (95%)

239 648

391 734

+63.5%

Lambda-cyhalothrin (95%)

285 548

449 319

+57.4%

Carbofuran (99%)

126 922

160 693

+26.6%

Deltamethrin (98%)

768 279

1 280 085

+66.6%

Acetamiprid (95%)

255 471

397 001

+55.4%

Chlorpyrifos (95%)

58 965

87 132

+47.8%

Cypermethrin (94%)

130 916

219 261

+67.5%

 

 

 


GRAIN SA CONGRESS IN PICTURES

If you missed the Grain SA Congress, be sure to have a look at the photo gallery on our website. Follow the link below:

To download a copy of the Annual Report, click on the link below:

 

 


NEWLY ELECTED GRAIN SA EXECUTIVE

Grain SA would like to congratulate the Chairperson, Vice-chairpersons and newly elected Executives with their appointments. We wish you well in your tenure and look forward to your contribution in organised agriculture. Our newly elected members are:

Chairperson:

Vice-chairperson:

Vice-chairperson:

Jaco Minnaar

Derek Mathews

Ramodisa Monaisa

 

Region 20

Marius Groenewald

Region 30

Alfrieda Mars

Co-opted member:

Patrick Stuurman

   

Representative: Farmer Development

 Preline Swart

 

 


SANDY SOILS DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE FARMER'S DAY

The Sandy Soils Development  Committee is hosting a Farmer's Day on 1 May 2019. Details as follows:

Time:
08h00 for 08h30

Venue:
Humansvlakte Skool (R59 Bothaville-Hoopstad teerpad)

Topics:
Plant density, rip depth, crop rotation and many more

Speakers:
Danie Minnaar, Louwrens van der Linde, Thabo van Zyl & Kobus van Zyl

RSVP:
Before 29 April 2019 to Nadia on 083 233 7539

 

 


2019 NAMPO TICKETS

Remember that members will only be able to access their 2019 NAMPO tickets directly from their Grain SA digital membership cards. Your membership card will utilise smart technology and afford us the opportunity to communicate smarter, directly and more cost-effective.

If you have not downloaded your membership card yet, do so without delay from your APP Store.

 

Use your cellphone number to access your Grain SA Digital membership card,
search for the JOYN APP on Google Play Store or on the Apple App Store

To download a copy of the User Journey, with all the information and features
CLICK HERE

For any queries and/or assistance, contact Elray at Grain SA on 08600 GRAIN (47246) or e-mail members@grainsa.co.za