UNCERTAINTY

The start to the year was very exciting, yet also very uncertain. I am referring to a new dynamic that is presenting new challenges to the grain markets; uncertainty about the grain crop plantings; and the rain.

This uncertainty is also present in the ruling party in the run up to the leadership elections which could possibly herald changes. Grain SA is also expecting changes in the leadership when Mr Neels Ferreira relinquishes the chairmanship of the organisation during the March 2012 Congress.

This type of uncertainty leads to insecurity. Uncertainty is closely related to risk; and risks we all know and it makes ones hair stand on end, because risk costs money. Risks, however, also bring greater opportunities for better profits, provided it is managed correctly.

Grain SA’s primary strategic goal is profitable, sustainable production of grain and oil seeds in a free market policy environment. With this in mind it might be necessary for us in the new year to once again assess the uncertainties and manage our risks in such a manner which will favour sustainability.

With regard to the uncertainty and the new dynamic in the market, I would like to elaborate on this next month. The precariousness of the rainfall patterns this year during the planting season does not bode well for grain production. If the current rainfall patterns are the result of climate changes, extremely difficult times still lie ahead. Seed growers will also have to take note of this to manage these situations better.

Our researchers will also have to study such weather patterns and supply our producers with advice since it may require changes to old, deep-rooted practices. Our knowledge of climate change is not yet well established and might require a year or three’s data to search out new solutions.

The battle for leadership within the governing party holds the danger for all manner of popular enouncements and short term views. These normally are not consistent with sustainability. Another disadvantage is that a large number of senior government officials, as a result of their political affiliation with the leader (and not just with the ANC ), are not prepared to take important decisions because they might lose their positions should there be a change in the leadership.

An example from the recent past was when president Zuma succeeded Mr Mbeki. The whole top structure was replaced almost overnight which resulted in very low productivity and poor service delivery in the public sector. In many areas we are still agape at the results of this leadership change. One saving grace is that this process at least happens in a democratic manner and not violently through a government coup or civil war.

During such a campaign for the leadership, it is important to maintain good relationships with all and not become partisan in the run-up to the election. Much of the continuity then becomes vested in our institutional capacity like Grain SA and it also opens new possibilities to establish a better policy environment.

With regard to the change in leadership in our own organisation, it certainly holds less risk for producers. There is sufficient depth in our leadership corps and the strategic goals have been fixed for the next few years. The staff is focused and have no uncertainty with regard to what is expected of them. The democratic process will follow its route and nothing of the current momentum will be lost. It remains a feather in our caps when such seamless transition can be achieved. Well done, Neels!

Jannie de Villiers, CEO