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Serious questions are emerging from across South Africa’s wheat industry as producers face escalating financial pressure and growing uncertainty about government and value-chain support for local production.
Producers warn that the combination of rising input costs and sharply declining international wheat prices has placed the sector under extreme strain. In June 2024, Grain SA and SACOTA formally applied for a review of the wheat import tariff to stabilise the industry. Yet, more than a year later, the sector is still waiting for a decision.
Industry leaders argue that the prolonged delay - together with market behaviour – raises questions about whether South Africa and the rest of the value chain is truly committed to safeguarding local wheat production. In recent seasons, wheat imports have increased just before and even during the local harvest, exerting direct downward pressure on producer prices.
Bread Prices Not Reflecting Wheat Trends
Although tariff adjustments are occasionally criticised for potentially raising bread prices, sector analysts note that retail bread prices have shown little correlation with wheat price movements in recent years. Wheat prices have fallen sharply since 2002, yet bread prices have continued to rise, clearly indicated in Figure 1. The data strongly suggests that adjusting the wheat tariff to support local farmers would have minimal impact on consumers.
Figure 1: White bread prices and local wheat prices
Source: Grain SA; Stats SA
Imports Outpacing Local Demand and Adding to Surpluses
Figure 2 shows that wheat imports have contributed to a sustained build-up of unutilised stock in the domestic market. These elevated stock levels are suppressing local prices, even though South Africa has produced more wheat over the past three seasons than the preceding ten-year average.
Figure 2: Wheat imports and unutilized stocks (10-year. avg. vs past three seasons)
Source: SAGIS, Grain SA
Note: *The 2025/2026 season is still in progress; figures may shift as the season concludes. Unutilized stocks are slightly higher, because at the time of publishing local producers were nearing the end of the harvesting season.
Producers emphasize that while South Africa remains structurally a net importer of wheat, timing is critical. Most local wheat is harvested between October and December - yet imports consistently peak from August to late October, flooding the market just ahead of harvest and undermining producer prices.
Figure 3 highlights this trend, showing elevated import volumes during the months leading into harvest.
Figure 3: Index of wheat import trends per marketing week (2010/11 to 2023/24)
Source: SAGIS; Grain SA
Western Cape: More Wheat, Yet More Imports
The Western Cape - South Africa’s largest dryland wheat-producing region - reflects the same troubling national trend. Even as provincial production has increased significantly in recent years, wheat imports through the Cape Town Harbour have also risen, despite only modest growth in local processing capacity.
Table 1 and Figure 4 illustrate the province’s wheat supply-and-demand dynamics: in most seasons, Western Cape producer deliveries exceed local processing requirements by wide margins, yet imports continue, including during harvest months.
Producers question why imported wheat keeps entering the regional market, when local supply is more than sufficient.
Table 1: Western Cape Wheat Supply and Demand
|
Cape Town Harbour Imports (ton) |
Western Cape Process (ton) |
Western Cape Producer deliveries (ton) |
Surplus |
|
|
2015/16 |
187 210 |
598 651 |
705 935 |
294 494 |
|
2016/17 |
3 850 |
594 069 |
1 073 686 |
483 467 |
|
2017/18 |
334 750 |
612 419 |
562 502 |
284 833 |
|
2018/19 |
98 625 |
608 601 |
857 759 |
347 783 |
|
2019/20 |
201 158 |
662 672 |
628 718 |
167 204 |
|
2020/21 |
136 045 |
667 940 |
1 088 767 |
556 872 |
|
2021/22 |
161 980 |
688 546 |
1 220 385 |
693 819 |
|
2022/23 |
129 605 |
659 846 |
888 120 |
357 879 |
|
2023/24 |
196 543 |
687 345 |
1 082 562 |
591 760 |
|
2024/25 |
208 258 |
711 629 |
1 022 693 |
519 322 |
Source: SAGIS
Figure 4: Western Cape Wheat Supply and Demand
Source: SAGIS
Industry Warns of Growing Dependence on Subsidised Foreign Wheat
Producers caution that South Africa’s increasing reliance on imported wheat - much of it originating from markets where governments provide significant production support – poses a long-term threat to the sustainability of the South African wheat sector.
Without timely policy intervention, including a revised tariff structure and measures to prevent import surges during harvest, local production will remain under financial pressure and may decline. This would leave South Africa and its consumers increasingly exposed to external price and supply shocks, and fully dependent on the global market for wheat supply.
“The issue is not today’s price alone,” industry representatives warn. “It is whether South Africa intends to maintain a viable wheat industry. Without urgent support, the long-term risks to food security and consumer stability are serious.”
ENDS