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Pretoria – Grain SA says the recent wheat tariff decision should not be viewed only as a technical trade matter, but as a serious warning about producer confidence, local wheat production, rural jobs and South Africa’s long-term food security.
The decision, published in the Government Gazette on 17 June 2026, retained the wheat Dollar-Based Reference Price (DBRP) at US9/ton and did not introduce the automatic trigger mechanism requested by Grain SA and the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (SACOTA).
Grain SA Chairperson Richard Krige said the organisation remains deeply frustrated by the outcome.
“A tariff mechanism that is calculated but implemented too late cannot be described as effective protection,” said Krige. “Producers need certainty, transparency and a system that works in practice, not only in theory.”
Grain SA has released a short briefing note, “Five facts ITAC missed in the wheat tariff decision,” to explain why the decision does not reflect farm-level reality.
The five key facts are:
Higher yields hide the real warning sign
ITAC focused on improved yields and production growth, but planted hectares tell a different story. Wheat hectares are declining because producers are questioning the profitability and long-term viability of wheat production.
The DBRP does not reflect farm-level economics
ITAC concluded that the current US9/t DBRP provides adequate protection and supports profitability. Grain SA disagrees. A theoretical margin does not reflect the real farm-level pressure of rising input costs, financing costs, exchange-rate movements, yield risk and logistics costs.
Input costs are outrunning wheat prices
ITAC stated that farm-gate prices increased faster than production costs. Grain SA’s analysis shows the opposite reality at producer level: wheat prices have not kept pace with input cost pressure, especially fertiliser, fuel and crop protection costs.
Import parity contradicts the conclusion
ITAC stated that local producers maintained a price advantage over imported wheat. Grain SA’s analysis shows that local producer prices have consistently traded below import parity once marketing and storage costs are taken into account.
Quality wheat is expected, but not rewarded
ITAC focused on production growth but missed the quality-price problem. South African producers are expected to produce high-quality wheat for millers and bakers, but the market and policy environment do not adequately reward the cost and risk of producing that quality.
If quality is not rewarded, producers will shift towards yield, gross margin and survival.
“By importing wheat we are not only moving grain across borders,” said Krige. “When wheat imports replace local production; South Africa risks exporting value, rural activity and jobs.”
Grain SA says the decision is difficult to reconcile with government’s stated objectives of localisation, industrialisation, inclusive economic growth, job creation and reducing import dependence.
“Local is lekker must apply to wheat too,” said Krige. “Government cannot speak about supporting local production while administering a trade mechanism that weakens the commercial case for producing wheat locally.”
Grain SA says the relationship between wheat quality and price must be addressed urgently. High-quality wheat requires suitable genetics, careful cultivar selection, additional inputs and disciplined production practices. Producers also carry substantial climatic and financial risk.
“If the market wants premium-quality local wheat, that quality must be paid for,” said Krige. “A producer cannot indefinitely carry the cost and risk of producing premium quality if neither the market nor the policy environment supports a fair price for that quality.”
Grain SA has formally requested the full report and reasoning on which the Government Gazette announcement was based. At this stage, the applicants have not yet received direct official communication from ITAC setting out the detailed basis for the rejection of the application.
Grain SA is not asking for protection from competition or a guaranteed profit. It is asking for a fair, predictable and evidence-based environment in which South African producers can compete and continue producing wheat for the country.
The organisation’s immediate requests are:
“The question is not whether South Africa can afford to support wheat producers,” said Krige. “The question is whether South Africa can afford to lose them.”
Ends
Issued by: Grain SA Communications
Further enquiries:
Richard Krige, Chairperson, Grain SA
Dr Tobias Doyer, CEO, Grain SA