13 Nov 2018

SUMMER GRAIN AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS

- as on 12 November 2018

A brief survey among Grain SA Executive members on the planting progress of summer grains indicate that rain is eagerly awaited in most areas.

East

Producers in the Eastern parts (KZN, Mpumalanga and Eastern Free State) of the country’s optimum planting time for maize range from mid-October to mid-November. Feedback from Grain SA’s Executive indicated that maize plantings in Mpumalanga are almost completed and they are currently busy with soybean plantings. It is dry in some areas and rain is not only needed on the already planted seedlings, but also to complete the planting process.

With minimal plantings to date in the Eastern Free State, the optimal plant window for maize is running out. Generally, minimal hectares of summer crops were planted, with the exception of areas where producers could plant here and there due to better soil moisture. Conditions are currently very dry; widespread rain is critically needed before producers can plant in earnest. Planting in the area should occur somewhat later than normal and possibly outside the optimal planting window.

West

Producers in the Western parts (North West Central Free State and North West Province) of the country’s optimum planting time for maize starts around mid-November and extend over a month to mid-December. Conditions in the area are generally very dry. Although a large percentage of land preparations have been completed, some producers are awaiting rain to complete soil preparation. Cotton has already been planted on a small scale, while almost no summer plantings have been done to date. Rain is awaited before producers will start planting. Planting maize under irrigation has started though.

North

In Limpopo (Springbokvlakte-area) it is very dry and no dryland summer grains have been planted. There is still time till almost end-November for maize plantings. Approximately 50% of land under irrigation have been planted.

Irrigation

Early maize in the Northern Cape has been planted with minimal groundnut hectares. There is an expansion in cotton-hectares, with feedback indicating that cotton is generally struggling to germinate. In Limpopo, problems are also being experienced with cotton, with a lot of hail damage on the early cotton. Expectation of a decrease in maize and soybean hectares planted, has been reported.

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CONSENSUS ON WHEAT GRADING FOR 2019

What is the new suggested grading?

Following nearly two years of talks and various analysis, the Wheat Forum reached consensus on the grading of wheat. The change proposed in the forum is as follows:

Table 1: Wheat grading

Grade	*Min Protein	HLM	Falling number
Super	12,5%	76kg	250 seconds (30 deviation)
B1	11,5%	76kg	250 seconds (30 deviation)
B2	10,5%	76kg	250 seconds (30 deviation)
B3	9,5%	74kg	250 seconds (30 deviation)

*12% moisture

What are the price difference suggestions?

Part and partial of the conversation regarding the grading, was the price differences between different grades. Here, consensus was reached within the forum on the following:

Table 2: Price differences between grades

Grade	Min Protein	Price difference
Super	12,5%	+2%
B1	11,5%	Base
B2	10,5%	-1%
B3	9,5%	-4%

This indicate the JSE-traded price will be a B1 and thus, form the basis. The super grade will be at a base + 2%, B2 will be base -1% and B3 will be base - 4%.

Summary of change

Table 3: Summary of grading and price differences

Current Grading						New Grading suggestion
Grade	Protein	HLM	Falling number	*Price difference		Grade	Protein	HLM	Falling number	Price difference
						Super	12.5%	76kg	250 sec	+2%
B1	12%	77kg	250 sec	Basis		B1	11.5%	76kg	250 sec	Basis
B2	11%	76kg	250 sec	-2%		B2	10.5%	76kg	250 sec	-1%
B3	10%	74kg	250 sec	-4%		B3	9.5%	74kg	250 sec	-4%
B4	9%	72kg	200 sec	-6%
Utility	8%	70kg	150 sec	-8%

*+- is being calculated on formula basis at JSE

What is the process to be followed?

The aim remains to implement the grading for the 2019 season, however, a few steps still have to be taken.

Grading:

• The forum will submit the grading change application to the Department of Agriculture. This will follow normal procedure, to be published in the Government Gazette etc. The Minister of Agriculture will have to approve and proclaim the change.
• The forum will also inform the JSE that a possible change in grading will take place with the proposed change.

Grading price differences:

• The forum will notify the JSE of the proposed changes.
• This is a Wheat Forum/Market proposal, which the JSE will have to test with its market players.

These are positive changes and Grain SA believes that it can support wheat producers to produce more sustainable in the future.