MANAGING an El Niño year

September 2026

Climate forecasts indicate that a strong El Niño could develop during the 2026/2027 production season. The fact that lower rainfall is expected in an El Niño year means that drought conditions may occur. This highlights the importance of tho­rough crop and risk planning.

First and foremost, managing an El Niño year is about moisture management and making better use of rainfall. This includes conserving soil moisture, capturing and making the best possible use of available moisture for the crop, and selecting the most suitable crop to utilise limited moisture optimally.

In an El Niño year, producers should avoid making hasty decisions. Stick to what is familiar and what works on your farm. Focus on effectiveness, efficiency and timeliness, as these are where significant savings can be realised. Precision farming is always more rewarding in a challenging year.

These are only guidelines to consider. Consult agricultural advisors in your area and develop a plan that suits your specific circumstances.

GUIDELINES TO CONSIDER

Manage moisture for crops effectively

Liming remains extremely important, especially during an El Niño year. Acidic soils inhibit root growth and reduce the nutrient and moisture uptake from deeper soil layers, which is limiting crop growth and production. Conduct precision soil analyses and variable-rate lime applications.

Try to store as much moisture as possible before planting, especially in the western parts of the country. Loose soil in a conventional system helps to capture rainfall. Aim to have fields ready to absorb rainwater before the first spring rains. This allows moisture to infiltrate the soil and reduces runoff. It is important to loosen the soil again as soon as possible after rain to minimise moisture loss.

Do everything possible to promote the development of strong root systems. In a drought year, good root development is critically important and should be optimised. Proper primary tillage can help achieve this.

Select and manage the crop

Analyse the production history of your land, particularly rainfall patterns and results from previous El Niño years. Plan according to the dominant soil types on the farm.

Adjust the yield targets according to the soil’s potential. Be careful not to plan for unrealistically high yields.

Select crops based on profitability, considering the current soil moisture, expected rainfall and realistic yield targets. If a crop cannot be produced profitably, consider not planting it.

Choose crop and planting date combinations that have the best chance of surviving a midsummer drought. Always plant a package of cultivars.

Sunflower is well known for tolerating drought better than maize. Consider planting sunflowers rather than maize on high-risk soils. Be cautious of soybeans, as it may abort flowers under excessive heat.

Plant the chosen cultivar package at the recommended plant population and adjust the population levels according to the soil moisture, yield potential and soil type.

Fertilisation and weed/pest control

Timely and effective weed control is essential. Do not plant in a weed-infested seedbed. Consider combining chemical and mechanical weed control to keep fields clean.

Pay particular attention to the management of nematodes and root diseases.

Fertiliser placement also plays an important role. If the upper soil layer is unlikely to remain sufficiently moist, placing fertiliser deeper in the soil may improve nutrient availability to the crop.

Maintain the initial fertiliser programme but manage topdressing according to the expected yield potential. Consider adjusting the type of topdressing fertiliser to optimise water-use efficiency.

Apply fertiliser in a way that allows roots to access nutrients easily and in a plant-available form. For example, consider band placement and deeper fertiliser application.

Mechanisation

Ensure tractors are used as effectively and efficiently as possible. Reduce tractor hours where feasible to save on diesel costs.

Inspect wear parts on implements regularly and replace when necessary. Excessively worn ploughshares increase the fuel consumption.

Expenses and markets

Reduce expenses to the bare minimum. In a drought year, and especially in the following year, price management becomes critically important.

Consider using options markets to hedge grain prices without committing to physical delivery.

This is a shortened version of an article that appeared in SA Graan/Grain in May 2023.

Publication: September 2026

Section: Pula/Imvula

Author: PIETMAN BOTHA − INDEPENDENT AGRICULTURAL CONSULTANT