Page 75 - GSA Annual Report / Jaarverslag 2013

Bedryfsdienste
Industry Services
73
The carry-out for groundnuts dropped to 10 100 tons due to the low planting of 47 000 hectares, but more
importantly because of the low national average yield of 900 kg per hectare obtained due to drought
conditions in the dryland production areas. It is expected that 18 000 tons of imports may be required,
while groundnut exports may drop to 8 000 tons compared to 14 800 tons the previous marketing year.
The commercial deliveries of canola are expected to increase by 43,4% compared to the previous
marketing year. The production of canola increased due to an increase of 70% in plantings and opening
stocks of 24 500 tons. The carry-out for 2013/2014 may increase to 63 500 tons if the number crushed
for oil and oilcake (72 000 tons) is not going to increase significantly above the current level of crushing.
Winter grains
Wheat traded at R3 474 per ton during the third week of October 2013, which is only 4% lower than
a year ago. The low stock levels for milling wheat, as well as the drought in Argentina lend underlying
support to wheat prices. The unfavourable production conditions during harvest in the Black Sea
countries were also supportive.
To meet the local wheat demand of 3 025 000 tons, South Africa may need to import almost 1,6 million
tons of wheat in the 2013/2014 marketing year. South Africa is a net wheat importing country.
The price of malt barley is determined by a single barley buyer and is linked to the Safex wheat price
in order to enable transparent price discovery, as well as the hedging of prices. The demand of malting
barley aims at 302 000 tons and South Africa may have to import 40 000 tons due to an expected
decline in the production of malting barley in 2013/2014.
3 300
3 700
3 500
3 900
4 100
4 300
4 500
4 700
4 900
5 100
5 300
5 500
5 700
7 700
7 500
7 300
7 100
6 900
6 700
6 500
6 300
6 100
5 900
7 900
8 100
R per ton
Figure 4: THE PRICE OF SUNFLOWER DELIVERED IN RANDFONTEIN
Figuur 4: DIE PRYS VAN SONNEBLOM GELEWER IN RANDFONTEIN
03-01-201217-01-201231-01-201214-02-201228-02-201213-03-201227-03-201212-04-201226-04-201210-05-201224-05-201207-06-201221-06-201205-07-201219-07-201202-08-201216-08-201230-08-201213-09-201227-09-201211-10-201225-10-201208-11-201222-11-201206-12-201221-12-201208-01-201322-01-201305-02-201319-02-201305-03-201319-03-201302-04-201316-04-201330-04-201314-05-201328-05-201311-06-201325-06-201309-07-201323-07-201306-08-201320-08-201303-09-201317-09-201301-10-2013
EU import parity/
EU-invoerpariteit
Safex sunflower/
Safex-sonneblom
EU export parity/
EU-uitvoerpariteit
Wintergraan
Koring het in die derde week van Oktober 2013 teen R3 474 per ton verhandel, wat slegs 4% laer
is as ‘n jaar gelede. Die lae voorraadvlakke van maalkoring asook die droogte in Argentinië, het
onderliggende steun aan koringpryse verleen. Die ongunstige produksietoestande in die oestyd in die
Swartsee-lande het ook steun verskaf.
Om in die plaaslike koringvraag van 3 025 000 ton te voorsien, sal Suid-Afrika dalk in die 2013/2014-
bemarkingsjaar byna 1,6 miljoen ton koring moet invoer. Suid-Afrika is ‘n netto koringinvoerland.
Die prys van moutgars word deur ‘n enkele garskoper bepaal en word aan die Safex-koringprys gekoppel
ten einde deursigtige prysbepaling en die verskansing van pryse moontlik te maak. Die vraag na moutgars
mik na 302 000 ton en Suid-Afrika sal dalk 40 000 ton moet invoer as gevolg van ‘n verwagte daling in die
produksie van moutgars in 2013/2014.
Low stock levels for
milling wheat, as
well as the drought
in Argentina lend
underlying support
to wheat prices.