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se lede oor te dra. Die deurlopende verhoging in saadpryse was
nog altyd ’n groot bekommernis vir graanprodusente, en sommige
saadmaatskappye kan begin om weerstand teen hoë pryse te ervaar.
Die saadpryse van maatskappye soos Seed Co, Agri-Seed, Delta
Seed en United Seed is in die 2018/2019-produksieseisoen vir die
eerste keer ingesluit.
SAADPRYSE
Sewe nuwe koringkultivars en twee nuwe garskultivars is in 2018
vrygestel. 33 kultivars (insluitend besproeiingskultivars) is in die
noordelike produksiestreke kommersieel beskikbaar, terwyl nege
verskillende kultivars in die Wes-Kaap beskikbaar is. Elf garskultivars
is beskikbaar vir produsente in die Wes-Kaap om te plant.
Koringsaadpryse het gemiddeld op ’n jaargrondslag met 3,7%
gestyg. Sommige pryse het met 14% gestyg, terwyl ander met soveel
soos 6,7% gedaal het. Dit is interessant om daarop te let dat koringsaad
in die noordelike produksiegebiede gemiddeld R344 per 25 kg-sak kos,
terwyl saad in die Wes-Kaap R379 per 50 kg-sak kos. Die prys van
garssaad het met 0,5% gedaal. Kanolasaadpryse was gemiddeld 5%
hoër as verlede jaar. Daar was pryse van kanolakultivars wat sywaarts
beweeg het, terwyl ander met tot 25% gestyg het.
Mieliesaadpryse vir die 2018/2019-produksieseisoen het gemiddeld
met 1,8% gestyg. Sonneblomsaadpryse het gemiddeld met 4,7%
gestyg, graansorghumsaadpryse met 7,5%, en sojaboonsaadpryse met
0,5%.’n Goeie barometer vir die evaluering van prysverhogings is die
produsenteprysindeks (PPI). Tot met Mei 2018, toe saadpryse gepubliseer
is, was die PPI 4,4%. Met ander woorde, op ’n gemiddelde grondslag
het die saadpryse van veral sonneblom en graansorghum skerper as
die produksiekoste-inflasie van Suid-Afrika gestyg.
Mieliesaadpryse kan verder ontleed word deur dit met mieliepryse
te vergelyk. Sedert die 2001/2002-produksieseisoen het die mielie
prysindeks (
Grafiek 2
op bladsy 90) vergeleke met die mieliesaad
prysindeks beduidend verswak. Met ’n geraamde gemiddelde
produsenteprys
1
van R1 984/ton vir die komende seisoen (2018/2019),
het die mielieprysindeks minimaal meer as mieliesaadpryse gestyg.
R/$ exchange rate and Brent crude oil price
R/$-wisselkoers en prys van Brent-ruolie
02/10/2017
02/11/2017
02/12/2017
02/01/2018
02/02/2018
02/03/2018
02/04/2018
02/05/2018
02/06/2018
02/07/2018
02/08/2018
02/09/2018
R/$ exchange rate
R/$-wisselkoers
Brent crude oil price
Brent-ruolieprys
1
1
Average producer price = Safex, July 2018 price - average differential cost - handling costs
1
Gemiddelde produsenteprys = Safex, Julie 2018-prys - gemiddelde differensiële koste - hanteringskoste
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Brent crude oil price/Brent-ruolieprys
R/$ exchange rate/R/$-wisselkoers
consistent increase in seed prices has always been a major concern
to grain producers and some seed companies might start experiencing
resistance to high prices.
Seed prices of companies such as Seed Co, Agri-Seed, Delta
Seed and United Seed were included in the 2018/2019 production
season for the first time.
SEED PRICES
Seven new wheat cultivars and two new barley cultivars were
released in 2018. 33 wheat cultivars are commercially available in the
northern production regions (including irrigation cultivars), whilst there
are nine different cultivars in the Western Cape. Eleven barley cultivars
are available for producers to plant in the Western Cape.
Wheat seed prices increased 3,7% on average on an annual basis.
Some prices increased by 14%, while others decreased by as much
as 6,7%. It is interesting to note that wheat seed prices in the northern
production areas on average cost R344 per 25 kg bag, while seed
prices in the Western Cape are R379 for a 50 kg bag. The prices of
barley seed decreased by 0,5%. Canola seed prices were on average
5% higher than last year. There were canola cultivars that moved
sideways, while others increased by up to 25%.
Maize seed prices for the 2018/2019 production season increased
by 1,8% on average. Sunflower seed prices increased by 4,7% on
average, grain sorghum seed prices by 7,5% and soybean seed
prices by 0,5%. A good barometer for assessing price increases is the
producer price index (PPI). Up until May 2018, when seed prices were
published, the PPI was 4,4%. In other words, seen on an average basis
– seed prices of especially sunflower and grain sorghum – increased
more sharply than the production cost inflation of South Africa.
Maize seed prices can be analysed further by comparing them with
maize prices. Since the 2001/2002 production season the maize price
index (
Graph 2
on page 90) weakened significantly compared to the
maize seed price index. With an estimated average producer price
1
of
R1 984/ton for the coming season (2018/2019), the maize price index
increased minimally more than maize seed prices.
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