68 / 116
66
TABLE 2 – International fertiliser prices in rand terms.
TABEL 2 – Internasionale kunsmispryse in rand-terme.
SEPTEMBER
2018
SEPTEMBER
2019 % CHANGE
Fertiliser
R/ton
R/ton
%
Ammonia (Middle East)
5 156
3 487
-32,4
Urea (46) (Eastern Europe)
4 010
3 487
-13,0
DAP (USA Gulf)
6 434
4 734
-26,4
KCL (CIS)
3 819
4 808
+25,9
SEPTEMBER
2018
SEPTEMBER
2019
% VERAN-
DERING
Kunsmis
R/ton
R/ton
%
Ammoniak (Midde-Ooste)
5 156
3 487
-32,4
Ureum (46) (Oos-Europa)
4 010
3 487
-13,0
DAP (VSA Golf)
6 434
4 734
-26,4
KCI (CIS)
3 819
4 808
+25,9
TABLE 1 – International fertiliser prices in dollar terms.
TABEL 1 – Internasionale kunsmispryse in dollar-terme.
SEPTEMBER
2018
SEPTEMBER
2019 % CHANGE
Fertiliser
USD/ton USD/ton
%
Ammonia (Middle East)
351
235
-33,0
Urea (46) (Eastern Europe)
273
235
-13,9
DAP (USA Gulf)
438
319
-27,2
KCL (CIS)
260
324
+24,6
R/$ exchange rate
14,69
14,84
1,0
SEPTEMBER
2018
SEPTEMBER
2019
% VERAN-
DERING
Kunsmis
USD/ton USD/ton
%
Ammoniak (Midde-Ooste)
351
235
-33,0
Ureum (46) (Oos-Europa)
273
235
-13,9
DAP (VSA Golf)
438
319
-27,2
KCI (CIS)
260
324
+24,6
R/$-wisselkoers
14,69
14,84
1,0
During the period under review, the exchange rate weakened by 1%.
The effect of a depreciation in the rand from R14,69/$ in Septem-
ber 2018 to R14,84./$ in September 2019 has caused international
prices to decrease with a smaller amount in rand value, with only
potassium chloride increasing considerably.
Table 2
indicates inter-
national fertiliser prices in rand terms, with the effect of the weaker
exchange rate on prices.
2
Average producer price = Safex, July 2020 price - average differential cost - handling costs
2
Gemiddelde produsenteprys = Safex, Julie 2020-prys - gemiddelde differensiële koste - hanteringskoste
South Africa imports more than 80% of its fertiliser needs; therefore,
local and international prices are expected to follow a similar trend.
Local fertiliser price movements are mainly influenced by international
fertiliser prices as well as the value of the rand.
The local fertiliser prices between October 2018 and October 2019 also
indicate a general decrease in prices except for LAN and potassium
chloride.
Graph 3
also indicates the downward trend in international
fertiliser prices the past year (evident from after the vertical blue line).
Graph 4
shows the fertiliser price index compared to the maize price
index since the 1985/1986 production season. At an estimated average
producer price
2
of R2 370 per ton for the coming production season
(2019/2020), the maize price index and the fertiliser price index is
closing a bit. Although the fertiliser price index is showing a bit of a
convergence, the gap between the two indexes is still large.
ANNUAL MEETING WITH FERTASA
The annual meeting between Grain SA and the Fertiliser Association of
Southern Africa (Fertasa) took place on 25 July 2019. Important matters
discussed at the meeting included the following:
Market trends in the grain and oilseed industry and production costs
for the 2019/2020 production season.
Fertiliser costs in South Africa.
International and local situation in the fertiliser industry.
The availability of fertiliser and transport logistics.
Lime industry trends.
South Africa’s dependence on imports.
The fertiliser and lime monitoring project.
Fertiliser Bill.
Fertasa’s view of granular lime.
Fertiliser research on soybeans.
Gedurende die oorsigtydperk het die wisselkoers met 1% verswak. Die
effek van die verskwakking of depresiasie in die rand vanaf R14,69/$
in September 2018 tot R14,84/$ in September 2019 het internasionale
pryse met ’n kleiner hoeveelheid in randwaarde laat daal, terwyl slegs
kaliumchloried se prys aansienlik gestyg het.
Tabel 2
dui internasionale
kunsmispryse in randterme aan, wat die uitwerking van die swakker
wisselkoers op pryse of prysveranderinge toon.
Suid-Afrika voer meer as 80% van sy kunsmisbehoeftes in, dus word
daar verwag dat plaaslike en internasionale pryse ’n ooreenstemmende
tendens sal volg. Plaaslike kunsmisprysbewegings word hoofsaaklik deur
internasionale kunsmispryse asook die waarde van die rand beïnvloed.
Die plaaslike kunsmispryse tussen Oktober 2018 en Oktober 2019 dui
ook op ’n algemene daling in pryse, buiten vir KAN en kaliumchloried.
Grafiek 3
toon ook die afwaartse tendens in internasionale kunsmispryse
oor die afgelope jaar (ná die vertikale blou lyn).
Grafiek 4
toon die kunsmisprysindeks vergeleke met die mielieprys-
indeks sedert die 1985/1986-produksieseisoen. Teen ’n geraamde
gemiddelde produsenteprys
2
van R2 370 per ton vir die komende pro-
duksieseisoen (2019/2020), beweeg die mielieprysindeks en die kuns-
misprysindeks effens nader aan mekaar. Hoewel die kunsmisprysindeks
gedaal het, is daar steeds ’n groot gaping tussen die twee indekse.
JAARLIKSE VERGADERING MET FERTASA
Die jaarlikse vergadering tussen Graan SA en die Kunsmisvereniging
van Suider-Afrika (Fertasa) het op 25 Julie 2019 plaasgevind. Belangrike
sake wat tydens die vergadering bespreek is, sluit in:
Marktendense in die graan- en oliesadebedryf en produksiekoste vir
die 2019/2020-produksieseisoen.
Kunsmiskoste in Suid-Afrika.
Internasionale en plaaslike situasie in die kunsmisbedryf.
Die beskikbaarheid van kunsmis en vervoerlogistiek.
Tendense in die kalkbedryf.
Suid-Afrika se afhanklikheid van invoere.
Die kunsmis- en kalkmoniteringsprojek.
Kunsmiswetsontwerp.
Fertasa se siening van korrelkalk.
Kunsmisnavorsing oor sojabone.