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64
concern to grain producers and some seed companies might start
experiencing resistance to high prices.
SEED PRICES
A total of 34 wheat cultivars are available for the northern production
areas (irrigation included), while nine different cultivars are available
commercially for the Western Cape. Western Cape producers have a
choice between eleven available barley cultivars.
Wheat seed prices increased by an average of 6,5% since last year.
Some cultivars increased by up to 9,4%, while others decreased by as
much as 4%. What is interesting is that in the northern production areas,
wheat seed costs R367 per 25 kg bag on average, while seed prices in
the Cape amount to R409 per 50 kg bag. Barley seed prices increased
by 4,6% on average.
Canola producers have a choice between 16 cultivars that are commer-
cially available. The prices of canola seed remained virtually unchanged
in the 2019 season.
Maize seed prices for the 2019/2020 production season rose by 4,5%
on average. Sunflower seed prices increased by 4,3% on average, grain
sorghum seed prices by 2,5%, while soybean seed prices decreased by
1,9%. A good barometer for assessing price increases is the producer
price index (PPI). Up until May 2019, when seed prices were published,
the PPI was 5%. This means that seed prices did not exceed production
cost inflation on an average basis.
Maize seed prices can be analysed further by comparing them with the
price of maize. Since the 2001/2002 production season the maize price
index (
Graph 2
) weakened significantly compared to the maize seed
price index. With an estimated average producer price
1
of R2 370 per
ton for the coming season (2019/2020), the maize price index minimally
increased more than maize seed prices.
BREEDING AND TECHNOLOGY LEVY
According to seed companies, roughly 80% of soybean plantings
and 70% of wheat plantings are annually planted with seed that was
held back. The holding back of seed – which is legal – causes a
vicious cycle that limits and to a great extent prevents investment
in the soy and wheat seed industry (in virtually all open-pollinated
crops). According to seed companies it takes about twelve years and
great expenses to introduce a new cultivar to the market. Without a
proper funding model, the practice of holding back seed prevents
new cultivars and the latest technology from coming to South Africa.
1
Average producer price = Safex, July 2020 price - average differential cost - handling costs
1
Gemiddelde produsenteprys = Safex, Julie 2020-prys - gemiddelde differensiële koste - hanteringskoste
16
15,75
15,5
15,25
15
14,75
14,5
14,25
14
13,75
13,5
13,25
13
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Brent crude oil price
Brent-ruolieprys
R/$ exchange rate
R/$-wisselkoers
GRAPH 1 – R/$ exchange rate and Brent crude oil price.
GRAFIEK 1 – R/$-wisselkoers en prys van Brent-ruolie.
01/10/2018
15/10/2018
29/10/2018
12/11/2018
26/11/2018
10/12/2018
24/12/2018
07/01/2019
21/01/2019
04/02/2019
18/02/2019
04/03/2019
18/03/2019
01/04/2019
15/04/2019
29/04/2019
13/05/2019
27/05/2019
10/06/2019
24/06/2019
08/07/2019
22/07/2019
05/08/2019
19/08/2019
02/09/2019
16/09/2019
30/09/2019
14/10/2019
28/10/2019
R/$ exchange rate
R/$-wisselkoers
Brent crude oil price
Brent-ruolieprys
Source: Grain SA
Bron: Graan SA
bekommernis vir graanprodusente, en sommige saadmaatskappye kan
begin om weerstand teen hoë pryse te ervaar.
SAADPRYSE
’n Totaal van 34 koringkultivars is beskikbaar vir die noordelike produ-
serende gebiede (besproeiing ingesluit), terwyl nege verskillende
kultivars vir die Wes-Kaap kommersieel beskikbaar is. Wes-Kaapse
produsente het ’n keuse van elf beskikbare garskultivars.
Koringsaadpryse het sedert verlede jaar op ’n gemiddelde basis met
6,5% gestyg. Sommige kultivars het tot 9,4% gestyg, terwyl ander weer
met soveel as 4% gedaal het. Wat interessant is, is dat koringsaadpryse
in die noordelike produksiegebiede gemiddeld R367 per 25 kg-sakkie
kos, terwyl saadpryse in die Kaap R409 per 50 kg-sakkie beloop.
Garssaadpryse het op ’n gemiddelde basis met 4,6% gestyg.
Kanolaprodusente het ’n keuse van 16 kultivars wat kommersieel
beskikbaar is. Pryse van kanolasaad het vir die 2019-seisoen bykans
onveranderd gebly.
Mieliesaadpryse vir die 2019/2020-produksieseisoen het gemiddeld met
4,5% gestyg. Sonneblomsaadpryse het gemiddeld met 4,3% gestyg en
graansorghumsaadpryse met 2,5%, terwyl sojaboonsaadpryse met 1,9%
gedaal het. ’n Goeie barometer vir die evaluering van prysverhogings is
die produsenteprysindeks (PPI). Tot en met Mei 2019, toe saadpryse ge-
publiseer is, het die PPI met 5% gestyg. Dit beteken dat saadpryse nie op
’n gemiddelde grondslag produksiekoste-inflasie oorskry het nie.
Mieliesaadpryse kan verder ontleed word deur dit met mieliepryse te ver-
gelyk. Sedert die 2001/2002-produksieseisoen het die mielieprysindeks
(
Grafiek 2
) vergeleke met die mieliesaadprysindeks beduidend verswak.
Met ’n geraamde gemiddelde produsenteprys
1
van R2 370 per ton vir die
komende seisoen (2019/2020), het die mielieprysindeks net effens meer
as mieliesaadpryse gestyg.
TELING- EN TEGNOLOGIEHEFFING
Volgens saadmaatskappye word ongeveer 80% van sojaboonaanplan-
tings en 70% van koringaanplantings jaarliks geplant met saad wat
teruggehou is. Hierdie terughouding van saad – wat wettig is – veroorsaak
’n bose siklus wat belegging in die sojaboon- en koringsaadbedryf (in
feitlik alle oop-bestuifde gewasse) beperk en in ’n groot mate voorkom.
Volgens saadmaatskappye neem dit ongeveer twaalf jaar en groot
onkoste om ’n nuwe kultivar op die mark te plaas. Sonder ’n behoorlike
befondsingsmodel verhinder die praktyk om saad terug te hou dat nuwe
kultivars en die jongste tegnologie na Suid-Afrika gebring word.