Production research and development/Produksienavorsing en -ontwikkeling

STRATEGIC RESEARCH FOCUS AREAS

Recognising that research and development (R&D) and innovation are key drivers to improving productivity and sustainability in the sector; producers are constantly confronted with new challenges, such as staying competitive in the free market. We prioritise crop improvement as a strategic focus area as seed is one of the most important inputs to improve yields and thus profitability.

Grain SA has further ventured into collaboration and building on our trust relations with the (Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry [DAFF], Department of Science and Technology [DST], the Department of Trade and Industry [the dti]).

We are in the process of developing a national framework (policy) for wheat R&D with DAFF. The intention of this document is to strengthen research capacity to meet challenges and support a culture of collaboration. This will increase understanding of emerging challenges between the policymakers and industry, encourage information sharing and support for additional funding.

Some of the key strategic outputs were the establishment of a formal pre-breeding platform consortium for wheat with DST as a key partner and the beneficiaries being the three seed companies (Sensako, Pannar and the Agricultural Research Council [ARC]). This work is implemented by the University of Stellenbosch (US) and funded by DST. Further collaboration was sought with the assistance of DST to partner with other international key wheat producing countries. We were also successful to link private seed companies with public and international funding sources/institutions to strengthen our local wheat research agenda.

With the support of the dti through their investment in the expansion of the local crushing capacity, South Africa’s soybean production reached a million tons, which was a significant milestone. One of the key strategic outputs for soybean was the successful creation of a consortium focusing on soil-borne diseases. Sclerotinia is a major disease hampering sustainable soybean production in all the different production regions. Two projects focusing on disease control of this disease was initiated in partnership with the universities of the Free State and Pretoria.

A key emerging challenge for sorghum producers were the absence of new high yielding and heat tolerant cultivars for the different production regions. A strategic discussion was held between the producers and seed companies to investigate the possibility of conducting ‘field trials’ in partnership. This is a producer-driven initiative, in collaboration with the principal seed companies, to find solution for their specific production zones. This project will enable producers to identify the most suitable and adaptable cultivar for a specific region, especially for ‘new’ cultivars.

CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE FARMER INNOVATION PROGRAMME

Grain SA, together with The Maize and Winter Cereal Trusts, established a Conservation Agriculture Farmer Innovation Programme (CA-FIP) to address concerns about excessively high soil degradation rates, profitability and poverty in grain-producing areas.

Progress and major achievements

• The Grain SA CA working group has been functional and managed to review and focus various activities under the CA-FIP umbrella.
• The publication of CA-related articles has been very popular and covers a wide range of relevant topics. Agricultural magazines are involved to accelerate this process.
• Awareness of CA is accelerated through prestigious events such as the annual KwaZulu-Natal no-till conference and various farmers’ days. The second CA Conference held in Ottosdal (11 - 12 March 2015) was a major milestone in this regard (see Photo 1).
• Trials under the Argentinian cooperation agreement have been successfully implemented at sites near Ottosdal and Kroonstad.
• Participation in national CA forums is seen as a major objective. Dr Smith was involved in two initiatives on the development of national CA policy, which are aiming to improve the enabling environment for CA to flourish.
• The implementation and coordination of various on-farm research projects are seen as a major milestone in the expansion of the CA-FIP. These projects follow the innovation systems approach with producers being central to the innovation process. Two new projects in the north-eastern Free State (Vrede and Reitz) have been initiated (see Photos 2 to 4).

STRATEGIESE NAVORSINGSFOKUSAREAS

Graanprodusente besef dat navorsing en ontwikkeling én innovering belangrik is om produktiwiteit en volhoubaarheid te verbeter, en staar voortdurend nuwe uitdagings in die gesig, soos om in die vrye mark mededingend te bly. Graan SA het gewasverbetering as ‘n strategiese fokusarea geïdentifiseer, omdat saad ‘n belangrike inset is om opbrengs, en dus winsgewendheid, te verbeter.

Graan SA het verder betrokke geraak by samewerking en die opbou van ons vertrouensverhouding met die staat (Departement van Landbou, Bosbou en Visserye [DLBV], die Departement van Wetenskap en Tegnologie [DWT], die Departement van Handel en Nywerheid [dti]), terwyl ons ons kommunikasie verbeter.

‘n Nasionale beleidsraamwerk vir koringnavorsing en onwikkeling word saam met DLBV ontwikkel. Die oogmerk is om navorsingsvermoë te versterk en ‘n kultuur van samewerking te ondersteun. Dit sal begrip vir ontluikende uitdagings tussen die beleidmakers en die bedryf vergroot, en die deel van inligting en ondersteuning vir bykomende befondsing aanmoedig.

 ‘n Paar van die belangrikste strategiese uitsette was die daarstelling van ‘n formele voortelingplatform-konsortium vir koring met DWT as ‘n sleutelvennoot. Die begunstigdes is die drie saadmaatskappye (Sensako, Pannar en die Landbounavorsingsraad [LNR]). Hierdie werk word deur die Universiteit Stellenbosch (US) geïmplementeer en deur DWT befonds. Verdere samewerking is met DWT se hulp verkry om ander belangrike koringproduserende lande internasionaal as vennote te betrek. Ons het ook daarin geslaag om privaat saadmaatskappye met openbare en internasionale befondsingsbronne/instellings te verbind om ons plaaslike koringnavorsingsagenda te versterk.

Met die steun van die dti deur middel van hulle belegging in die uitbreiding van die plaaslike perskapasiteit het Suid-Afrika se sojaboonproduksie ‘n miljoen ton bereik, wat ‘n rekord is. Een van die belangrike strategiese uitsette vir sojabone was die suksesvolle stigting van ‘n konsortium wat op grondverwante siektes fokus. Sclerotinia is ‘n belangrike siekte wat volhoubare sojaboonproduksie in al die verskillende produksiestreke kniehalter. Twee projekte wat op die beheer van hierdie siekte fokus, is in vennootskap met die Universiteit van die Vrystaat en die Universiteit van Pretoria geïnisieer.

 ‘n Belangrike ontluikende uitdaging vir sorghumprodusente was die gebrek aan nuwe hoë-opbrengs- en hitteweerstandige kultivars vir die verskillende produksiestreke. ‘n Strategiese gesprek tussen die produsente en saadmaatskappye het plaasgevind om die moontlikheid te ondersoek om saam “veldtoetse” te doen.

Dit is ‘n produsent-gedrewe inisiatief in samewerking met die vernaamste saadmaatskappye om ‘n oplossing vir hulle spesifieke produksiesones te vind. Hierdie projek sal produsente in staat stel om die geskikste en aanpasbaarste kultivar vir ‘n spesifieke streek te identifiseer – veral in die geval van “nuwe” kultivars.

BOERE-INNOVERINGSPROGRAM VIR BEWARINGSLANDBOU

Graan SA, het saam met die Mielie- en Wintergraantrust, ‘n Boere-innoveringsprogram vir Bewaringslandbou (BIP-BL) bekendgestel om kommer oor buitensporige hoë gronddegradasiekoerse, winsgewendheid en armoede in graanproduserende gebiede aan te spreek.

Vordering en belangrikste prestasies

• Die Graan SA BL-werksgroep het daarin geslaag om verskeie aktiwiteite onder die BIP-BL-sambreel te hersien en te fokus.
• Die publikasie van BL-verwante artikels was baie gewild en dek ‘n wye verskeidenheid relevante onderwerpe. Landboutydskrifte is betrokke om hierdie proses te versnel.
• Bewustheid van BL word deur prestigegeleenthede soos die jaarlikse KwaZulu-Natal-geenbewerkingskonferensie en verskillende boeredae versnel. Die tweede BL-konferensie in Ottosdal (11 - 12 Maart 2015) was ‘n belangrike mylpaal in hierdie verband (sien Foto 1).
• Proefnemings ingevolge die Argentynse samewerkingsooreenkoms is suksesvol by terreine naby Ottosdal en Kroonstad geïmplementeer.
• Deelname aan nasionale BL-forums word as ‘n belangrike doelwit beskou. Dr Hendrik Smith was betrokke by twee inisiatiewe oor die ontwikkeling van die nasionale BL-beleid, wat daarop gemik is om die bemagtigingsomgewing te verbeter sodat BL kan floreer.
• Die implementering en koördinering van verskillende navorsingsprojekte op plase word as ‘n belangrike mylpaal in die uitbreiding van die BIP-BL beskou. Hierdie projekte volg die innoveringstelselbenadering, met produsente wat sentraal tot die innoveringsproses staan. Twee nuwe projekte in die noordoos-Vrystaat (Vrede en Reitz) is geïnisieer (sien Foto’s 2 tot 4).

PRODUCTION CONDITIONS IN THE 2014/2015 PRODUCTION SEASON

The 2014/2015 production season started out with the expectation that average to above-average harvests could realise in the summer cereal-producing areas. However, conditions changed drastically and South Africa – especially the western parts of the country – experienced an exceptionally harsh and extended midsummer drought period. The concern with respect to this midsummer drought was that South Africa’s subterranean moisture conditions in general were already under severe pressure and that this below-average rainfall would place further strain on summer cereal crops. The extreme heat and dry conditions occurred during the pollination phase of the summer crops and negatively affected yields. Rainfall occurred in the shape of thunderstorms and no widely spread rain fell. This meant that adjacent fields varied from very good to extremely poor.

Maize, sunflower and sorghum plantings decreased by 1,3%, 3,8% and 10,6% respectively from the 2013/2014 production season to the 2014/2015 production season, while producers expanded their plantings of soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. Producers are profit driven and select their grain and oilseeds for plantings accordingly.

Winter grain producers planted 1,2% more wheat and 10,1% more barley in the 2015/2016 production season than in the 2014/2015 production season, while the canola plantings decreased since last year. This reduction in canola hectares can largely be attributed to late rain in the Swartland and profit margins that were under pressure. Wheat hectares in the Free State expanded by 15,1%, while the plantings in the Western Cape were the same as last year. The barley hectares increased by 10,1%, mainly due to new barley cultivars on the market and better weather conditions in the Rûens area compared to the Swartland.

MAIZE

PRODUKSIE-OMSTANDIGHEDE IN DIE 2014/2015-PRODUKSIESEISOEN

Die 2014/2015-produksieseisoen het afgeskop met die verwagting dat gemiddelde tot bo-gemiddelde oeste in die somergraanproduserende gebiede kan realiseer. Omstandighede het egter handomkeer verander en Suid-Afrika het deur ‘n buitengewoon strawwe en uitgerekte midsomerdroogte-periode, veral in die westelike dele van die land, gegaan. Die kommer met betrekking tot hierdie midsomerdroogte was dat Suid-Afrika se ondergrondvogtoestande oor die algemeen alreeds onder hewige druk was en dat hierdie ondergemiddelde reënval nog verdere stremming op somergraangewasse sou plaas. Die uiterste hitte en droë toestande het tydens die bestuiwingsfase van die somergewasse voorgekom en opbrengste is negatief beïnvloed. Reënval het in die vorm van donderbuie voorgekom en geen wydverspreide reën is ontvang nie. Dit het meegebring dat lande langs mekaar vanaf baie mooi tot uiters swak vertoon het.

Mielie-, sonneblom- en sorghumaanplantings het onderskeidelik met 1,3%, 3,8% en 10,6% vanaf die 2013/2014-produksieseisoen tot die 2014/2015-produksieseisoen afgeneem, terwyl produsente met die aanplanting van sojabone, grondbone en droëbone uitgebrei het. Produsente is winsgedrewe en maak hul keuse van graan en oliesade vir aanplantings daarvolgens.

Wintergraanprodusente het vir die 2015/2016-produksieseisoen 1,2% meer koring en 10,1% meer gars as in die 2014/2015-produksieseisoen aangeplant, terwyl die aanplantings van kanola sedert verlede jaar gedaal het. Dié afname in kanola-hektare kan grotendeels aan laat reën in die Swartland en winsmarges wat onder druk verkeer het, toegeskryf word. Koring-hektare in die Vrystaat het met 15,1% uitgebrei terwyl die aanplantings in die Wes-Kaap dieselfde as verlede jaar was. Die gars-hektare het met 10,1% toegeneem hoofsaaklik weens nuwe garskultivars in die mark asook beter weersomstandighede wat in die Rûens-gebied, teenoor die Swartland, voorgekom het.

MIELIES

SORGHUM

From Graph 4 it is clear that the planting trend of sorghum has been downwards since 1990. The sorghum area for the 2014/2015 production season was 8 350 hectares less than in the previous year. The final National Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) production estimate showed that a total of 116 500 tons of sorghum were produced during the 2014/2015 production season. While a record average national yield of 3,36 t/ha had been harvested in the previous season, a poor average yield of 1,65 t/ha was achieved in the past year, which was the second lowest in a period of 16 years. The drought had a significant impact on sorghum production, as sorghum is generally planted in marginal soils.

SORGHUM

Uit Grafiek 4 is dit duidelik dat die aanplantingstendens van sorghum sedert 1990 afwaarts is. Die sorghum-oppervlakte vir die 2014/2015-produksieseisoen is 8 350 hektaar minder as die vorige jaar. Die finale Nasionale Oesskattingskomitee (NOK)-produksieskatting toon dat ‘n totaal van 116 500 ton sorghum in die 2014/2015-produksieseisoen geproduseer is. Terwyl ‘n rekordgemiddelde nasionale opbrengs van 3,36 t/ha verlede seisoen gestroop is, is ‘n skrale gemiddelde opbrengs van 1,65 t/ha die afgelope jaar behaal wat die tweede laagste in ‘n tydperk van 16 jaar is. Die droogte het ‘n beduidende impak op sorghumproduksie gehad aangesien sorghum oor die algemeen op marginale gronde aangeplant word.

SUNFLOWER SEED

Compared to the sunflower seed plantings of 598 950 hectares in the 2013/2014 production season, producers reduced the 2014/2015 production season plantings by 3,83% to 576 000 hectares. According to the CEC’s final 2015 production estimate, a crop of 660 900 tons of sunflower seed was produced and an average yield of 1,14 tons was achieved. Although extreme drought conditions occurred during the past season, the little rain that fell during March 2015 supported sunflower yields.

SONNEBLOMSAAD

GROUNDNUTS

GRONDBONE

SOYBEANS

In the 2014/2015 production season the area under soybeans increased by 36,7% compared to the previous season. The plantings increased by a remarkable 189,1% or 449 550 hectares over a period of seven years (since 2008/2009). According to the CEC‘s final production estimate a record crop of 1 059 850 tons was produced, which was 111 850 tons or 11,8% more than in the previous production season (Graph 7). The difficult weather conditions of the past season meant that an average yield of 1,54 t/ha was obtained, which was considerably lower than in the previous year. The soybean pressing capacity increased dramatically since a few years ago, which drastically increased the local demand for soybeans.

SOJABONE

DRY BEANS

During the past season, 64 000 hectares of dry beans were planted. This was an increase of 8 180 hectares compared to the previous year (Graph 8). According to the final CEC production estimate, a crop of 73 390 tons was produced, which was 10,64% less than in the 2013/2014 production season. An average yield of 1,15 t/ha was achieved, which was lower than the yields over the past three years.

DROËBONE

Daar is 64 000 hektaar droëbone die afgelope seisoen aangeplant. Dit is ‘n toename van 8 180 hektaar vergeleke met die vorige jaar (Grafiek 8). Volgens die finale NOK-produksieskatting is ‘n oes van 73 390 ton geproduseer, wat 10,64% minder as die 2013/2014-produksieseisoen is. ‘n Gemiddelde opbrengs van 1,15 t/ha is behaal, wat swakker as die afgelope drie jaar se opbrengste was.

WHEAT

In the 2015/2016 production season, 482 150 hectares were planted – 5 580 hectares more than in the previous season. This represented the second smallest area yet in the history of South Africa (Graph 9). According to the CEC’s second winter crop estimate for the 2015/2016 production season a wheat crop of 1,635 million tons is expected. Despite the bigger area, this is 114 600 tons less than in the previous production season. This decrease in production is largely the result of extremely dry conditions experienced in the Swartland (Western Cape).

KORING

Vir die 2015/2016-produksieseisoen is 482 150 hektaar aangeplant, wat 5 580 hektaar meer is as die vorige seisoen. Dit is die tweede kleinste oppervlakte nog in Suid-Afrika se geskiedenis (Grafiek 9). Volgens die NOK se tweede wintergewasskatting vir die 2015/2016-produksieseisoen, word ‘n 1,635 miljoen ton koringoes verwag. Ten spyte van die groter oppervlakte is dit 114 600 ton minder as die vorige produksieseisoen. Hierdie afname in produksie is grotendeels as gevolg van uiters droë toestande wat in die Swartland (Wes-Kaap) ervaar word.

MALTING BARLEY

According to the CEC, 93 730 hectares of malting barley were planted in the 2015/2016 production season. This was 10,1% or 80 605 hectares more than in the 2014/2015 production season. According to the CEC‘s second winter crop harvest estimate, 347 083 tons can be produced and a yield of 3,70 t/ha can be expected. This will be the second highest average yield yet (Graph 10).

MOUTGARS

Volgens die NOK is daar 93 730 hektaar moutgars in die 2015/2016-produksieseisoen aangeplant. Dit is 10,1% of 80 605 hektaar meer as in die 2014/2015-produksieseisoen. Volgens die NOK se tweede wintergewas-oesskatting kan 347 083 ton geproduseer word en ‘n opbrengs van 3,70 t/ha word verwag, wat die tweede hoogste gemiddelde opbrengs nóg sal wees (Grafiek 10).

CANOLA

In the 2015/2016 production season 78 050 hectares of canola were planted – a drastic 16 950 hectares fewer than in the previous season. This decrease can be largely attributed to the drought conditions during planting. According to the CEC’s second crop estimate, a harvest of 105 400 tons is expected, which is a yield of 1,35 t/ha. This will be the second biggest canola area yet in South Africa, and can be the third biggest crop produced until now (Graph 11).

KANOLA

In die 2015/2016-produksieseisoen is 78 050 hektaar kanola aangeplant, ‘n drastiese 16 950 hektaar minder as in die vorige seisoen. Hierdie afname kan grotendeels aan die droogtetoestande tydens plant toegeskryf word. Volgens die NOK se tweede oesskatting word ‘n oes van 105 400 ton verwag, wat ‘n opbrengs van 1,35 t/ha is. Dit is die tweede grootste kanola-oppervlakte nog in Suid-Afrika, en kan die derde grootste produksie wat tot nou toe geproduseer is, wees (Grafiek 11).

CROP ESTIMATES COMMITTEE

The Crop Estimates Committee releases the additional yield information to promote the transparency of crop estimates and reinforce the credibility of the crop estimate figures.

OESSKATTINGSKOMITEE

Om die deursigtigheid van oesskatting te bevorder en om die geloofwaardigheid van die oesskattingsyfers te versterk, word die addisionele opbrengsinligting deur die Oesskattingskomitee vrygestel.

PRODUCTION COSTS

PHYSICAL INCOME AND COST ANALYSIS

Summer grain

Determining and gathering the historic actual income and production cost figures are of the utmost importance when it comes to evaluating the profitability of any grain crop. Graphs 12 - 15 depict the actual long-term production cost, yield and profit/loss situation for North West, the north-western Free State, eastern Free State and KwaZulu-Natal since 2000/2001. It is clear that production costs are constantly increasing over time. These increases on a year-to-year basis are fairly high and have a huge impact on producers’ ability to adapt and make adjustments to their current production systems in order to plant maize profitably.

PRODUKSIEKOSTE

FISIESE INKOMSTE- EN KOSTE-ANALISE

Somergraan

Dit is uiters belangrik dat historiese werklike inkomste en produksiekostesyfers bepaal en ingesamel word wanneer die winsgewendheid van enige graangewas geëvalueer word. Grafiek 12 - 15 beeld die werklike langtermynproduksiekoste, opbrengs en wins/verlies-situasie vir die Noordwes Provinsie, Noordwes-Vrystaat, Oos-Vrystaat en KwaZulu-Natal sedert 2000/2001 uit. Dit is duidelik dat produksiekoste met verloop van tyd voortdurend styg. Hierdie stygings op ‘n jaar-tot-jaar-grondslag is redelik hoog en het ‘n groot impak op produsente se vermoë om hulle huidige produksiestelsels aan te pas en te wysig om mielies winsgewend te plant.

Uit die grafieke is dit duidelik dat baie goeie opbrengste as gevolg van goeie klimaatstoestande gedurende die 2013/14 produksieseisoen behaal is, veral in die westelike dele van die land (Grafiek 12 - 14). Die gewastoestande in KwaZulu-Natal was egter ‘n uitdaging en die daling in opbrengs in daardie gebied kan in Grafiek 15 gesien word. Oor die algemeen het Suid-Afrika sy hoogste volume mielies (2014) in bykans 30 jaar geproduseer.

Winter grain

Graphs 16 and 17 show the actual production costs, yield and profit/loss situation of wheat in the Southern Cape (Western Cape) and the eastern Free State. The graphs show that profits were made in the Southern Cape in the 2013 production season, while producers in the eastern Free State incurred losses. The 2012 season was the only one over the past five years in which producers in the eastern Free State made a profit from the planting of wheat. The main reason for the profits in the Southern Cape was the good yields obtained, while producers in the eastern Free State harvested lower yields than in the previous season, which placed profit under pressure.

Wintergraan

Grafiek 16 en 17 toon die werklike produksiekoste, opbrengs en wins/verlies-situasie van koring in die Suid-Kaap (Wes-Kaap) en die Oos-Vrystaat. Die grafieke toon dat winste in die 2013-produksieseisoen in die Suid-Kaap gemaak is, terwyl produsente in die Oos-Vrystaat verliese gemaak het. Die 2012-seisoen was die enigste jaar wat produsente in die Oos-Vrystaat, gedurende die laaste vyf jaar, ‘n wins uit die aanplant van koring gemaak het. Die belangrikste rede vir die winste in die Suid-Kaap was weens goeie opbrengste wat behaal is, waar produsente in die Oos-Vrystaat swakker opbrengste as verlede seisoen afgehaal het, wat wins onder druk geplaas het.

BUDGETED INCOME AND COST ANALYSIS

It is vital that producers thoroughly acquaint themselves with the production costs of summer crops for the upcoming season and assess their profitability before planting them. Due to the free market, producers must decide whether the Safex price is adequate and Grain SA therefore compiles detailed enterprise budgets for the homogeneous production regions of South Africa. Only by calculating all costs can a sensible decision on sustainable production be made. The cost structure of the budget is compiled using variable and fixed costs. Producers use these budgets to compile and compare their own on-farm budgets and this information is crucial, as it is the backbone of production decisions.

2015/2016 production season

The drought conditions of the past season (2014/2015) placed profitable grain and oilseed production in most parts of South Africa under major pressure. However, with the new season around the corner, the situation looks considerably better as a result of stock levels that are particularly low and that support local prices. This increase in producer prices that has occurred with most summer crops, but specifically with maize, over the past year has led to producers being able to plan with better profitability prospects regarding the crops that can be planted.

The profitability (gross margin per hectare and per ton) of different maize yield scenarios as well as other grain and oilseed crops planted in the north-western Free State area is indicated in Graph 18, as applicable to the 2015/2016 production season. The yield scenarios are based on assumptions of production conditions in the north-western Free State and it is important to note that these figures may differ between producers. The calculated variable cost for each scenario as well as a calculated fixed cost of ± R2 200 was used to compile these figures. Note: Although the information in the next section is shown only for the north-western Free State area, it is available for the other regions as well.

BEGROTE INKOMSTE- EN KOSTE-ANALISE

Dit is noodsaaklik dat produsente hulself deeglik van die produksiekoste van somergewasse vir die komende seisoen moet vergewis en die winsgewendheid daarvan evalueer voordat geplant word. As gevolg van die vryemark moet produsente besluit of die Safex-prys voldoende is, en Graan SA stel dus gedetailleerde ondernemingsbegrotings vir die homogene produksiestreke van Suid-Afrika op. Slegs deur alle koste te bereken, kan ‘dalk ingeligte besluit oor volhoubare produksie geneem word. Die kostestruktuur van die begroting word op grond van veranderlike en vaste koste saamgestel. Produsente gebruik hierdie begrotings om hul begrotings op die plaas saam te stel en te vergelyk, en hierdie inligting is noodsaaklik, aangesien dit die ruggraat van produksiebesluite is.

2015/2016-produksieseisoen

Die afgelope seisoen se droogtetoestande (2014/2015) het winsgewende graan- en oliesaadproduksie in die grootste dele van Suid-Afrika onder hewige druk geplaas. Met die nuwe seisoen om die draai, lyk die situasie egter heelwat beter as gevolg van voorraadvlakke wat besonder laag is en plaaslike pryse ondersteun. Dié styging van produsentepryse wat by die meeste van die somergewasse, maar spesifiek mielies, die afgelope jaar voorgekom het, het tot gevolg dat produsente met beter vooruitsigte ten opsigte van winsgewendheid kan beplan watter gewasse aangeplant kan word.

Die winsgewendheid (bruto marge per hektaar en per ton) van verskillende mielie-opbrengsscenario’s asook ander graan- en oliesadegewasse wat in die Noordwes-Vrystaat geplant word, word in Grafiek 18 getoon, soos dit op die 2015/2016-produksieseisoen van toepassing is. Die opbrengsscenario’s is gegrond op aannames van produksietoestande in die Noordwes-Vrystaat en dit is belangrik om daarop te let dat hierdie syfers tussen produsente kan verskil. Die berekende veranderlike koste vir elke scenario asook die berekende vaste koste van ± R2 200 is gebruik om hierdie syfers saam te stel. Let wel: Hoewel die inligting in die volgende gedeelte slegs vir die Noordwes-Vrystaat-produksiegebied getoon word, is dit ook vir die ander streke beskikbaar.

Sensitivity analyses

The projected sensitivity analyses (break-even yield and price) for the above average yield maize dry land scenario for the 2015/2016 production season in the north-western Free State is shown in Table 4.

During the drafting of the budget the July 2016 Safex maize price traded on average at R2 450/ton, which is approximately R2 178/ton in the producer's pocket after considering the location differential, handling costs and marketing commission. The estimated production costs of a 4,5 t/ha yield was used during compilation. The total variable costs to plant a hectare of maize for a 4,5 t/ha yield is about R7 831/ha. In addition, a calculated fixed cost component (for example salaries, rent, cost of living, electricity, etc.) of R2 200/ha added to a total production cost of R10 031/ha.

Sensitiwiteitsontledings

Die geprojekteerde sensitiwiteitsontledings (gelykbreekopbrengs en -prys) vir die bogemiddelde-opbrengs droëlandscenario vir mielies vir die 2015/2016-produksieseisoen in die Noordwes-Vrystaat word in Tabel 4 getoon.

Met die opstel van die begroting was die Julie 2016 Safex-mielieprys gemiddeld R2 450/ton, wat ongeveer R2 178/ton in die produsent se sak is nadat die liggingsdifferensiaal, hanteringskoste en bemarkingskommissie in ag geneem is. Die geraamde produksiekoste van ‘n opbrengs van 4,5 t/ha is met die samestelling gebruik. Die totale veranderlike koste om ‘n hektaar mielies vir ‘n opbrengs van 4,5 t/ha te plant, is ongeveer R7 831/ha. ‘n Berekende vastekoste-komponent (byvoorbeeld salarisse, huur, lewenskoste, elektrisiteit, ensovoorts) van R2 200/ha moet verder by ‘n totale produksiekoste van R10 031/ha gevoeg word.