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processed yellow maize compared to the same time last year, with
the most decline attributed to gristing.
According to the supply and demand estimates, the projected ex-
port quantity for maize is 2,150 million tons for the 2020/2021 season
and 1,613 million tons has been exported already. About 475 915 tons
of white maize was exported to neighbouring countries and recently to
Italy. Yellow maize exports were mainly destined for Vietnam, Taiwan,
Japan, Korea and our neighbouring countries (
Figure 1
). There is also
300 000 tons of processed maize products estimated for exports for
the 2020/2021 marketing season and about 148 927 tons have been
exported already.
PRICE MOVEMENTS
Local prices have been on the rise for the past few months; the main driver
has been higher international prices and the weak exchange rate. Since
June 2020, December white maize futures prices increased by 37,8% and
December yellow maize futures prices increased by 29,5% (
Figure 2
).
The forecast for the new season in terms of production planning is look-
ing favourable, therefore, it is expected that the local production may
be good in the 2020/2021 season. According to the latest report by the
CEC, intentions to plant for 2021 is 2,746 million ha of maize which is
135 200 ha more than last season. At the time of
writing this article, most of the actual plantings still
need to take place so there is still a lot of produc-
tion risk, therefore weather conditions will play a
critical role in the next few months.
Looking at possible price movements, if a good
crop is realised, prices are likely to move closer to
export parity levels, but the other determining fac-
tors will be the exchange rate and international
prices. If the international prices remain high and the
exchange rate remains weak as current levels, we
could see prices of between R2 800 and R3 400 for
the 2020/2021 season.
If the international prices drop and the ex-
change rate becomes stronger, the local prices
can come down to below R2 500. In summary,
prices can range between below R2 500/ton up to
R4 500/ton. The most likely scenario given current
market fundamentals is that the prices should be
between R2 800/ton and R3 200/ton.
2
2019*
2020*
y/y
% change
2019*
2020*
y/y
% change
Processed for
local market
White maize White maize
Yellow maize Yellow maize
Human
2 322 589
2 655 545
14,34
312 310
311 126
-0,38
Animal
206 218
519 948
152,14
2 562 390
2 159 822
-15,71
Gristing
5 325
5 664
6,37
5 539
3 224
-41,79
Total
2 534 132
3 181 157
25,53
2 880 239
2 474 172
-14,10
Maize processed for local consumption.
Source: SAGIS
*April - September
2
White and yellow maize futures price movements.
Source: Grain SA
Domestic demand for maize remains good.
About 5,6 million tons of maize, was processed
for human consumption, animal feed and
gristing, this is a 4,5% increase compared
to the same period last year.
MADE POSSIBLE BY
THE MAIZE TRUST
11