51 6. COMMERCIAL BUDGETS1 6.1. MONTHLY PROFITABILITY CALCULATIONS FOR THE 2024/2025 SEASON Due to input costs constantly increasing, Grain SA has monitored the profitability situation of grain and oilseeds every month since June 2024. As new information emerges every month, whether it is input costs such as fertiliser or fuel prices or the SAFEX price, the profitability situation for the upcoming summer grain season was estimated to give producers and the industry an idea of grain and oilseed profitability. Fertiliser prices, with their current downward pressure, are very positive for producers. Fuel prices have decreased in the past few months, but this trend was halted with the expected price hike in November 2024. As South Africa imports a large part of its fuel, its producers are exposed to international markets. 6.1.1. Western parts of the country Figure 6.1 shows the estimated total variable costs monthly for the North West province, with the first scenario compiled in the 2024/2025 production season to estimate production cost figures for the 2025/2026 production season, as compiled with input costs as available in August 2025. Figure 6.1: Western Region: Profitability gauge 2025. Figure 6.2: Eastern Region: Profitability gauge of 2025. 1 Disclaimer: The information herein has been obtained from various sources, the accuracy and/or completeness of which Grain SA does not guarantee and for which Grain SA accepts no liability. Any prices or levels contained herein are preliminary and indicative only and do not represent bids or offers. These indications are provided solely for your information and consideration. Variable costs Variable costs Fixed cost Fixed cost Profit Profit For the 2025/2026 production season Yield target: 5t/ha SAFEX price (July 2025): R4 455/t Average deductions: R418/t Total variable costs: R17 710,95/ha Total fixed cost: R2 652,91/ha Net margin (R/ha): R2 821/ha For the 2025/2026 production season Yield target: 6,5 t/ha SAFEX price (July 2025): R4 200/t Average deductions: R442/t Total variable costs: R20 683,10/ha Total fixed cost: R1 817,73/ha Net margin (R/ha): R1 926,20/ha 6.1.2. Eastern parts of the country Figure 6.2 shows the estimated total variable costs monthly for Mpumalanga, with the first scenario compiled in the 2023/2024 production season to estimated production cost figures for the 2024/2025 production season, as compiled with input costs as available in August 2024. 6.2. PROFITABILITY CALCULATION FOR THE 2025/2026 Grain SA is in the process of finalising the budgets for the 2025/2026 season. An illustration of the maize budgets and their performance against other crops is shown in Tables 6.1 to 6.4. The yield scenarios were based on assumptions for production conditions in different regions. These tables are compiled to indicate the difference in profitability between the various summer crops, but it is important to note that these figures may vary from one producer to the next. INCOME AND PRODUCTION COST
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