49 4.1. KEY POINTS FOR THE 2024/2025 SEASON 4.1.1. Input pricing Input prices had a moderate overall decrease throughout the past year. As of October, local fertiliser prices increase by an average of 10,75% year-on-year. This increase can be attributed to the strengthening of the rand throughout the year. Fuel prices experienced a consistent decrease from October 2024 to October 2025. International herbicide prices decreased by an average of 17,62% year-on-year for the month of October, insecticide prices decreased by -0,78%, and fungicides by 20,39%. It's worth noting that the rate of decrease has slowed down, leading to smaller average month-to-month price declines. The appreciation of the rand against the dollar over the course of a year affects local prices, causing them not to decrease as much in dollar terms. As a result, international price decreases have not been experienced yet in the local market. 4.1.2. Commodity prices Throughout 2024/2025 there was a divergence between white and yellow maize prices, with yellow maize prices increasing more slowly than white maize. White maize production was lower than expected due to drought and other factors, leading to higher prices due to limited availability. In contrast, yellow maize production was more in line with demand, resulting in relatively stable prices. 4.1.3. Weather predictions The status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is active. This will likely be a weak-strength and shortlived ENSO event. La Niña conditions are expected to develop during October to December 2025 (53% to 58% chance, according to the NOAA CPC/IRI). 5. Compilation of budgets Establishing production budgets before planting crops is becoming increasingly necessary and should not be taken lightly when making production decisions. No one can accurately predict the future with all its risks and uncertainties; the budgets are compiled based on some forecasts, historical data, assumptions, and experience. Considering this, producers, as budget users, should be aware that budgets, as well as the assumptions on which they are based, are subject to constant change. The cost structure of the budgets consists of variable and fixed costs. If you do not make use of certain variable costs, you can deduct them from the total variable costs. Although fixed costs vary dramatically from producer to producer, a placeholder amount is provided to calculate an estimated total production cost. Forecasting the commodity price for the coming year is extremely difficult. The SAFEX future contract prices used in the calculations are as follows: Maize for delivery in July 2025 = R4 200/ton Sunflower for delivery in May 2025 = R9 600/ton Soybeans for delivery in May 2025 = R7 400/ton The 2025 futures prices were determined by using the spot price of that particular contract month. Based on the location differential, handling costs and marketing commission, a producer price was calculated. 5.1. YIELD A difficult determining factor when compiling budgets is determining the yield of the crop for the upcoming year due to the uncertainty of climatic conditions. When comparing the profitability of different crops, it's important to consider which yield scenarios should be used for each crop. For instance, if you were to harvest an average yield of 4 t/ha for maize, what would be the equivalent yield for sunflower or soybeans in the same climate and soil? Agronomists and industry specialists were consulted to determine the comparative yield scenarios for different crops. INCOME AND PRODUCTION COST
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