32 Grain SA member services Input environment INTRODUCTION South Africa’s reliance on imported agricultural inputs continues to expose the local market to global price volatility and supply disruptions. In 2025, this vulnerability remains prominent, with energy markets still impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude oil is currently trading at $64,62 per barrel, which is $7,38 lower than the price recorded at the same time in 2024. This is significantly below the peak of $125,95 per barrel seen in 2022, but still considerably higher than the $22,95 per barrel recorded in 2020. In 2024 we saw the natural gas market feel the strain of reduced Russian supplies to Europe, pushing prices higher globally. These energy market fluctuations have had a knock-on effect on input costs, particularly for fertilisers and chemicals. Now in October 2025 the council of the EU agreed to phase out imports of Russian natural gas due to Russia’s weaponization of gas supplies and repeated disruptions of gas supplies to the EU. This will be a very important event to keep an eye on when considering the impact on the cost of fertilisers and chemicals. Geopolitical instability also continues to affect global grain markets. Trade tensions between the United States and China have significantly impacted the CBOT soybean price, primarily due to reduced demand. This decline has had a spillover effect on the SAFEX price of local soybeans. However, as of 30 October, it appears that the two countries have reached an agreement, and soybean shipments to China are expected to resume immediately. As always, weather conditions in key production regions will continue to play a crucial role in shaping the global grain market. For South African producers, the combination of rising input costs, currency volatility, and global supply chain disruptions presents ongoing challenges in 2025. Graph 1 indicates volatility in the exchange rate and Brent crude oil price. Input costs, volatility and disruptions cause challenges Input overview 2 600 2 400 2 200 2 000 1 800 20 19,5 19 18,5 18 17,5 17 16,5 Graph 1: Rand/dollar exchange rate and diesel price. Cents per litre Rand/dollar rate Diesel price Rand/dollar rate Jul 2023 Jan 2024 Jul 2024 Jan 2025 Jul 2025 Source: Grain SA
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