19 Grain economics and marketing INPUT PRICES To South African producers the combination of rising input costs, volatile exchange rates and disruptions in global value chains remained a constant challenge in 2025. The percentage change in seed prices showed that maize seed had risen by 2,3%, sorghum seed by 6,2%, soybean seed by 6,9% (the biggest increase) and sunflower seed by an average of 4,3%. At an average producer price of R4 462 per ton for the 2024/2025 production year, the gap between the maize price index and the fertiliser price index increased further, which is not surprising in view of the sharp rise in fertiliser prices. Local KAN (28) rose by 7,44% year on year, urea by 14,37%, MAP by 11,23% and KCL by 9,95%. Virtually all the active ingredients required for the manufacturing of agrochemicals in South Africa are imported. Although the prices of certain herbicides and pesticides have dropped, the price of glyphosate (95%) has risen by almost 7% year on year. Diesel prices had also gradually declined over the past year, which brought a degree of relief to producers, although the volatility of the rand/dollar exchange rate still remained a limiting factor. Finally, the agricultural machinery market showed strong growth in 2025, with 5 773 tractors being sold between January and September – an increase of 22% compared to the same period in 2024. JSE MATTERS Between October 2024 and September 2025 the JSE Commodity Advisory Committee met three times (November 2024; March 2025 and July 2025). There were no meetings of the technical committee during this period. The Advisory Committee focused on transparency and accessibility. One of the issues that brought hope of the promotion of market transparency was the planned launch of the JSE Basis Futures contracts. It caused great disappointment when the JSE had to take these contracts from the table for the time being because of an internal legal opinion that requested the contracts to be expanded to accommodate more than ten silo complexes. The internal systems of the JSE first have to be adjusted to accommodate more than ten silos. Both the Commitment of Traders (CoT) report and the concentration risk report are being discussed with various regulatory bodies. The committee had an official meeting with the FSCA in which it was confirmed that financial systems first had to be adjusted before the CoT report could be discussed further. The JSE also submitted a proposal to improve speculative limits for white maize and soybeans. Grain SA commented on these and is awaiting feedback in the next committee meeting. The sizes of soybean contracts changed from 50 tons per contract to 100 tons per contract. The JSE Advisory Committee discussed issues regarding physical inventory and outloading problems in detail. Throughout the year initiatives were launched to monitor outloading rates and inventory available at JSE silos. This point is crucial and remains on the table in the remaining committee meetings. ALTERNATIVE LOCATION DIFFERENTIAL CALCULATION METHOD FOR SOYBEANS The JSE launching period for the alternative location differential calculation method commenced in 2024 for a two-year period ending at the end of 2025. Then the JSE must decide, under the guidance of the market and on the basis of the set criteria for success, whether this method will be implemented permanently. In 2024 the average redeliveries under the new model were higher than in the previous year, but in 2025 redeliveries dropped to below the average. Several silos with high redeliveries also had high redeliveries in previous years, as well as high redeliveries in the maize market. This points to a silo-specific problem, rather than the alternative method. During the pilot period that market also expanded to the extent that an additional 28 silos facilitated physical delivery of soybeans. Grain SA communicated an in-depth analysis to the JSE on the operation of the alternative model in preparation for the final decision to be made at the end of 2025. Throughout the year initiatives were launched to monitor outloading rates and inventory available at JSE silos. GRAIN INTELLIGENCE, ECONOMICS AND MEMBER SERVICES
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